In current discussions about the future of Belarus, soon to be the arena of slightly doubtful-looking presidential elections in 2006, it’s interesting to observe the apparent eagerness of some to draw a parallel between Minsk now and Kiev in 2004, or Tbilisi in 2003. After the Orange and Rose revolutions, now it’s the turn of – but there isn’t a colour for it yet.
The absence of a characteristic colour for the “Belarus revolution” – if there is one – may be significant. For one thing, Moscow is rather certain that it doesn’t want any more “coloured revolutions” on its doorstep. For another, the kind of opposition represented by Alyaksandr Milinkevich, the U.S.-educated physicist who has been chosen to challenge Lukashenka in 2006, might best be characterized as “grey”.
There's also the Polish factor: Poland has become a base of support for the Belarusian opposition movement. When Lech Walesa, Vaclav Havel and other Polish heroes of 1989 gathered outside the Gdansk shipyard for the 25th anniverary of the founding of the Solidarity movement, they issued a reminder to the world that the revolution is not yet complete, and there has been much talk in Warsaw of “freedom for our neighbours”. Polish MPs have also lobbied for the Belarusian opposition at the European Parliament. Predictably, such steps have not been much to Moscow’s liking.
All in all, there’s a distinct sense that what may lie in store for Belarus is something quite unlike what happened in Ukraine and Georgia.
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